09/2019
If you can learn how a value trap REIT looks like, you will never fear investment in REITS as REITS pay you a commendable 5.5 - 8% dividend yield yearly. Why are doctors so confident in being able to differentiate between a heart attack and a headache? This is because they extensively study the symptoms of both. Similarly at GCP Global, we have trained our student investors to avoid Value Traps for the past 3 decades by extensively studying the early symptoms and issuing warnings way in advance.
A Value Trap in REITS is one which appears to be cheap as the REIT has been trading at low valuation metrics such a multiple of earings, cashflow, book value while paying above average dividend yield for an extended time period. Such a stock attract investors who are looking for bargains, especially the above average dividiend yield.
Lets illustrate with Soilbuild Business Trust. This Industrial trust was listed on listed on 16th Aug 2013 at an IPO price of $0.78.
Soilbuild performance for the past 1, 2, 3 years and 3 years 8 months have been miserable as compared to its peers, namely the other 8 Industrial REITS
Soilbuild REIT Share Price since IPO
The REIT certainly has the honor of posting year-on-year loss on its share price year-after-year since 2015. A Soilbuild REIT shareholder would have lost a total of $225,000 presently if he had put in $770,000 for a million shares at end-2015. For the same amount, if he has been smart and sharp as how we train our REIT students, he would have made $217,140 or 28.20% if he/she had spread the $770,000 evenly over the other 6 Peer Industrial REITs (excluding Cache Logistics and Sabana REIT which we have also warned our student investors as Value Traps). The difference is a huge $442,140 or 57.42% for an investment of $770,000! These differences are what build and destroy fortunes.
Let me share some of what we have been teaching on Value Traps in our REITS classes -
1. When a REIT’s DPU continue to fall, it is a warning signal about the prospects of the REIT and management’s capability
Soilbuild REIT’s DPU continued to fall for a 3rd consecutive year to 5.284 cents in 2018. When management fails to deliver on steady DPU growth for shareholders, a host of reasons ranging from lower reversionary rentals, weak occupancies and poor economic conditions are always cited. Shareholders need to know how good these excuses are, but excuses become inexcusable after a generous grace period of 3 years 8 months as the smart and sharp REIT investor would use that to judge how good or bad the management is.
2. When a REIT diversify into another geographical region, investors should always question the viability of such expansion
In our classes, we have highlighted that Soilbuild REIT expansion into Australia to acquire 2 properties in late 2018 may be too late and are potentially confusing for investors.
Soilbuild REIT bought 2 properties – 14 Mort Street, an office building in Canberra City and Inghams Burton, a poultry processing industrial property in Adelaide for a whopping A$116.3 million or S$115.5 million, at an exchange rate of A$1 = S$1 when the acquisitions were announced on 7th Sep 2018.
We have advised our student investors that both properties are located in Canberra and Adelaide, not in bustling Melbourne or Sydney (where I have been living for the past 12 years). The prices that Soilbuild REIT had paid do not reflect such differences as relative pricing between these areas range widely by at least 2 – 4% in relative yields and 1 – 3% in capitalization ratios.
While 14 Mort Street is leased to the Australian government, there is only a 6-year term left of the existing lease. It is not surprising that Soilbuild REIT management is confident of a renewal, but renewal risk falls on Soilbuild REIT shareholders, notwithstanding other issues like reversion rentals, duration etc.
The Inghams Burton poultry processing plan is leased to the Inghams Group which is the largest poultry producer in Australia. Nonetheless, how does a poultry processing plant fit in with the REIT’s fit of owning business parks and industrial properties? Has Soilbuild REIT exhibited poor market timing by expanding into Australia when major REITS like Ascendas REIT had its first foot hold into Australia more than 5 years ago?
One glaring fact that we pointed out in Soilbuild REIT’s 7th Sep 2018 announcement of the acquisitions was the fact that the impact on proforma DPU is not even 0.2% (yes, less than 0.2%, not 2%) if they were financed with S$100 million PERPS and AUD debt. So, is this deal even worth doing? Did the deal actually subject shareholders to new risks like sovereign and currency risks with minimal compensation in projected returns?
The exchange rate has depreciated further to exchange rate of A$1 = S$0.9348 as at Fri 30 Aug 2019 which meant that both properties have suffered a foreign exchange loss of $7,582,760, albeit unrealized, assuming no change in valuations since purchase.
As at 2Q2019 results ended 30 Jun 2019, the acquisitions had minimal positive accretion as the 2Q2019 DPU continued to dip and drip to a new low of 1.179 cents compared to 1.614 cents as at 1Q2016.
3. The Smart and Sharp REIT Investor always examine how an acquisition is being funded, which is just as important as the merits of the acquisition.
Soilbuild REIT partially funded these acquisitions with an A$43.3 million loan and an issuance of a $65 million of perpetual securities, PERPs paying 6% per annum. Notably, Soilbuild REIT PERPS are now the 2nd most expensive PERPS (only lower than Lippomalls PERPS at near to 7% per annum). We have warned in our REITS investment classes that the way the deal is funded still left Soilbuild REIT with a high gearing ratio of 39.4% at 30 Jun 2019. This has certainly made the REIT more vulnerable on the downside. This was because if the smart and sharp REIT investor classify these PERPS as borrowing, Soilbuild REIT gearing ratio would be an exorbitant 42.5%! We have warned in our classes that REITS that flirted with the 40% gearing ratio leave themselves vulnerable to capital raising from the next acquisition, as what Cache Logistics and OUE Commercial Trust have experienced prior.
True enough, the share price of Soilbuild REIT has collapsed further from 62 cents at end-Dec 2018 to 54.5 cents as at Fri 30th Aug 2019, a collapse of 12.09% when the SREIT market soared 82.69 points or 9.91% to reach 917.51 as at Fri 30th Aug 2019 for the same time period. The sharp contrast in performance is certainly too glaring to miss.
4. Acquisitions and Disposals by REITS convey to shareholders how good the management is
No management would admit that their management is bad or had an oversight in their investment strategies. But the latter is key in driving DPU growth which in turn drives REIT prices.
In Soilbuild’s REIT case, the REIT paid an astronomical price of $97 million for 72 Loyang Way in 2015. When it divested the facility last year, they only fetched $34.08 million or a huge loss of $62.92 million or 64.86%! The numbers speak volume.
REIT investors rely on managements to look after their investments, especially new purchases and disposals. Without a strong management team in place, a REIT will struggle to achieve sustainable growth which can be clearly seen in its DPU performance. As what we teach in our classes, we warn about REITs making value destruction acquisitions or expansion with little benefits to shareholders, which is evident from the share price performance following such actions.
5. The REIT continued to be plagued with continual default from their tenants. From its tenant at 72 Loyang Way to its 2nd largest tenant - NK Ingredients, the rental default story continues
Soilbuild REIT holders must have had a dismal Chinese New Year early this year when NK Ingredients which accounted for 6.2% of the REIT rental income defaulted.
From lower reversionary rentals for rental renewals, lower occupancies, default after default news, to lower DPU quarter-after-quarter, many of the REIT investors must have wished that they had identified this Value Trap much earlier, like when we warned our investor students 2 years ago.
Join us for our next REITS Quarterly class on 12 Oct 2019 where we identify for you other Value Traps and where and how you should do your Asset Allocation for REITS the next quarter.
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